Regions of Somalia
Big news out of Garowe this week. On Tuesday, Puntland?s parliament finally passed the electoral laws that will govern Puntland?s first popular election in decades. Tentatively set for mid-2013, the poll will elect representatives to serve in district councils within each of Puntland?s administrative districts. An additional law will be passed at a later date to address electoral procedures for parliament. But this first step enables political associations to begin registering with the Transitional Electoral Commission for a place on the 2013 ballot.
Although a full English translation is not yet available, I had a chance to meet with the Electoral Commission a few weeks ago to learn about what at that point was the prospective electoral law. Assuming the law?s substance wasn?t dramatically altered by members of parliament, its provisions are quite interesting in how they seek to reconcile a number of powerful, and sometimes contradictory, concerns.
But first things first. Puntland?s district councils will be elected under a system of closed-list, proportional representation. All political associations that meet the Commission?s prescribed conditions will be allowed to contest the initial poll. These conditions include the following:
? A $15,000 registration fee, paid to the Commission
? Recruitment of 500 members from each of Puntland?s eight regions
? The appointment of a single representative to liase with the Commission leading up to the election
Once registered, these associations will develop internal processes to select their list of candidates to present to the public. All lists must include as many individuals as there are seats within a respective district council. For example, if Garowe?s council has 27 members ? as it likely will ? then all associations contesting seats in Garowe must list 27 names on election day. However, the first five names on all lists must also include at least one of each gender. There is no requirement for ordered placement, but this condition ensures that at least one woman will always be among an association?s first five candidates.
You may have noticed that I keep referring to ?political associations? rather than ?parties.? This is an intentional distinction created by the Commission. Puntland?s constitution and political party law, while instituting electoral democracy with universal suffrage, limit formal participation in representative bodies to three political parties, all of which must be registered with the government. How will these parties be selected? Through the results of the first district council elections, which will be open to all political associations that meet the aforementioned conditions. If, for instance, twelve associations register and compete, all that receive enough votes to claim at least one seat may join that particular district council, but the top three vote-winning associations for all of the councils will be singled out and formally registered by the government as political parties. No other formal associations will be allowed to contest elections for a period of ten years, after which the Commission will open the system once again for fresh competition to select the next set of three official parties.
With no census to set geographic distribution of representation from various districts and regions, the size of the councils will be determined by the electoral law. Yet this presents a somewhat bigger problem for the new parliament. Although the law governing that election is still forthcoming, the Commission thinks that one possible solution might be using voter turnout rates. In other words, a particular area?s turnout in district council elections will determine its allotment of seats in parliament as well.
This hasn?t been finalized, of course, but the ingenuity of such a plan could be matched by some pretty striking consequences as well. First, let?s take a step back and consider the law as a whole. The Commission had three primary concerns in designing a system: simplicity, legitimacy, and clan influence.
The first, simplicity, was addressed through proportional representation and the mechanism of translating votes into seats. The final law will spell this out in more detail, but my understanding is that the most likely option is assigning each seat a vote value based upon the total number of votes cast. According to one of the technical advisers to the Commission, this may be one of the easier options to understand, particularly for a population with little or no memory of elections. It means that 27,000 votes cast in a district with 27 seats would give each seat a value of 1,000 votes.?The second concern, legitimacy, can be seen in the level of participation. Allowing an unlimited number of registered associations to contest the initial poll should in theory leave the population with the impression that the playing field was level, and that everyone had the ability to express their political preferences. Universal suffrage, of course, furthers this aim as well. Finally, clan influence was addressed in perhaps the most explicit manner ? requiring all associations to collect 500 members from each region. Because clans are often located in particular geographic areas, this is a clear attempt to prevent the organization of parties around individual clan lines. Longer term, the hope is that requiring parties to recruit and maintain members from every region will help develop a culture where parties speak to cross-cutting issues rather than clan concerns.
Can these provisions serve their intended purpose? Time will tell, but the toughest of the three concerns, not surprisingly, will likely be clan and traditional sources of influence. Despite 500-member rule, two other provisions may have the unintended effect of boosting the role of clans. The first is the $15,000 requirement for association registration. This is a steep sum in a country where well over 50 percent of the population is nomadic and per capita GDP remains one of the lowest in the world. But even this only spells part of the story. According to an adviser to the Commission, conducting a full campaign for the first election could cost an additional $200,000. Aside from wealthy Somali businessmen and ex-pats living in the West, clans seem the most obvious place to secure that type of funding. And there are no campaign finance laws to regulate contributions.
The second problematic provision hasn?t yet been established, but deals with the census issue. If the Commission decides to base geographic representation on voter turnout, as mentioned above, this naturally provides a large incentive to get out the vote. As we see in the US and elsewhere, this requires organization, money, and intimate knowledge of communities ? all of which clans possess in spades. It would not be a surprise at all to see traditional leaders mobilize their communities to vote early and often (quite literally, since there are no ID or registration cards).
Considered on the whole, this law seems to create an initial system that is comprehensible and transparent. It sets clear rules for participation, utilizes proportional representation to respect plural politics, and grants communities a local elected body to serve their interests. We may have to wait for the parliamentary electoral law to make broader judgments about the entire system and its corresponding incentives, opportunities, and constraints. And one much larger question concerns the overall compatibility of this system with the new Somalia constitution that I wrote about earlier this week. For now, it will be interesting to watch as new associations register, and to observe how all participating groups choose to distinguish themselves during the campaign season. Their composition, platforms, and ultimate voter-base may speak to the success of the Commission in addressing their biggest concerns.
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