Is Obama's Reelection Out of His Hands?

Republicans can ? and will ? hammer President Obama endlessly for the real or perceived missteps of his administration, and warn that the economic malaise of the hour could just be the opening bell of prolonged American decline if he wins a second term.

But a scan of Monday morning?s headlines underscores just how much of the broader picture, with very hefty implications for the November vote, is beyond Obama?s control.

Egyptian voters handed power to that country?s Muslim Brotherhood. Greek voters backed the center-right, pro-euro party, but after an initial surge of confidence European and Asian markets retreated on Monday.

And Russian battleships were reportedly tacking toward Syria, a combustible scenario where tens of thousands have already died at the hands of the Assad regime.

Obama, as commander-in-chief and manager of the world?s largest economy outside the European Union, will wear blame for all three crises regardless of their outcome. But his ability to shape any of the results is unclear, and that lies realistically at neither his feet nor the office?s.

Yes, the electoral verdict will be about the economy. But it will also be on Obama?s perceived ability to manage that economy, and image shaped by his assertiveness in other areas as well.

-- Jim O?Sullivan
@JOSullivanNatJo

NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRIMARY REPORT

On and Off the Romney Bus, Tryouts for a Spot on the Ticket
[New York Times, 6/17/12] Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have all campaigned with Romney, among others, offering the GOP presidential candidate to test out the chemistry with each of these potential running mates.

Will Text-Raising Become the Next Big Thing?
[National Journal, 6/18/12] About a decade ago, the Internet revolutionized political fundraising. Could text messages be poised to repeat the feat?

Following Executive Order, Obama Urges Passage Of DREAM Act
[Time Magazine, 6/17/12] In an op-ed, Obama defends his executive order issued Friday allowing young immigrants to avoid deportation and calls on Congress to pass the stalled DREAM Act. Meanwhile, a new poll of Latino voters in five battleground states shows increased enthusiasm for Obama following the announcement.

Postcards From the Bus-capade: Romney Road Report NEW!
[The Atlantic, 4/18/12] James Fallows is out on Romney?s bus tour and drops a few observations, including the fact that the presumptive GOP nominee has honed his campaign message. Oh, and he has a big head -- literally.

Obama Pleads for Voters? Patience
[The Hill, 6/18/12] President Obama is taking the same tack as former President George W. Bush, in that he's asking voters to give him a bit more time to enact all the change he promised in 2004. While that strategy worked in 2004, it's a gamble for Obama in a year marred by a weak economy.

Romney Amazed by Convenience Store Sandwich Computer NEW!
[Yahoo! 6/16/12] ?While at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, Romney described his experience with the hoagie computer at WaWa that allows you to bypass calling out your order to someone behind a counter: ?You press a little touchtone key pad? You touch this, touch this, touch this, go pay the cashier, and there's your sandwich. It?s amazing!?

Candidates Trade Misquoting Charges
[Associated Press, 6/18/12] How many of the attacks lobbed during stump speeches and campaign ads involve statements taken out of context? A great many, according to the AP, skewing the arguments of both sides even as they denounce such out-of-context attacks.

Romney Embraces Hill GOP
[Wall Street Journal, 6/17/12] On Sunday, Romney campaigned with House Speaker John Boehner and Sen. Rob Portman, and today he'll appear with Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, a series of guests that underscore Romney's commitment to the Republican Party in Congress.

Romney Knocks Obama?s Immigration Move but Struggles to Offer an Alternative Plan
[Washington Post, 6/17/12] Romney did call Obama's policy shift on immigration a "stopgap measure," arguing that the U.S. needs a "long-term" solution to the immigration problem, but he repeatedly dodged questions on whether he'd end the policy if he became president and has yet to offer his own alternative.

Bain Capital: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a Muddle
[Politico, 6/18/12] The Obama campaign attacks Romney's record at Bain while Obama praises his success as a businessman; the Romney campaign touts Bain's job-creation numbers while Romney declines to offer details on how exactly he created jobs. It's a complicated campaign issue, but one that neither candidate is willing to relinquish just yet, in part because each believes in the emotional power of their arguments surrounding Bain Capital.

Are You Better Off Than You Were 10 Years Ago?
[Slate, 6/18/12] He?s not mentioning George W. Bush by name, but Obama is trotting out a new variation on a theme first started by Ronald Reagan: are you better off than you were a decade ago?

Is Wisconsin Ripe for a Romney Win?
[CBS News, 6/18/12] CBS' Leigh Ann Caldwell outlines three political heavy-hitters in Wisconsin that are backing Romney up this election season, and highlights recent events -- like the bad-for-Democrats recall election -- that may put Wisconsin in Romney's pocket come November. On Monday, Romney predicted he would win the state.

Ron Paul's Army May Have a Loud Voice at GOP Convention
[Los Angeles Times, 6/18/12] By working the rules of state and local party conventions to his benefit, Ron Paul is slowly amassing an array of supporters to speak for him at the Republican National Convention this summer, opening the door for Paul's libertarian-leaning ideology to play a role in crafting the party's platform.

Potential VP Pick Sen. Portman Still Unknown to Many in His Own State
[ABC News, 6/17/12] He has been called by many "boring," but perhaps that's because many don't know him -- even those in his own state, who voted him into office. In northeastern and central Ohio, locals couldn't identify Portman.

Chris Christie: Call Me, Mitt
[Daily Beast, 6/18/12] Did the Jersey governor blow his White House chances? He talks to Peter J. Boyer about why he passed on running?and how Romney could talk him into being his running mate.

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